Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,257,023$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(8.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,306,568.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,306,568.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $75,662$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(4.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{78,205.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(78,205.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $986,325$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $66,201$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74,538.3}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(74,538.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,541$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(123 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(9.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,380.9}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,380.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,400$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,868$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(545 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,818.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,818.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $225$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(13.5 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{240.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(240.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,757$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,095$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(576 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,634.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10,634.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $373$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(42.5 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{368.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(368.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,658$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $29,616$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(744 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,867.9}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(56,867.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,961$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(103 \times 10^{0.036t}\) (doubling rate \(8.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,424.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,424.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,874$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,685$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(62 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $105$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(9.63 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{193.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(193.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,426$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,729$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(192 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,827.0}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 28.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,827.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $73$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(7.43 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.4)}}\) (asimptote \(81.4\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $625$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $488$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(15 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{606.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(606.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $421$ on 2020-05-07
